Instruction: Jason Giesbrecht Uses Masters’ Stat To Make Point

The Victoria-based co-owner of The Golf Performance Project retweeted a post by stats guru Lou Stagner with a comment that summed up an entire approach to the game...

To put it in context, the third hole at Augusta National (Flowering Peach) is a par-4, 350-yarder with a green that is among the toughest on the course. Like many holes, the pin positions here on Sundays are fairly consistent.

The major decision for players is whether to try to get as close as possible to the green with their drive or lay up for a full shot in.

Stagner (Golf Stat Pro / @LouStagner) posted the stats related to going-for-it vs. laying up for the Sunday pin positions for the past three years and the results were unequivocal.

2021

18 went for it. Scoring average = 4.11
36 lay up. Scoring average = 4.31

2020

21 went for it. Scoring average = 3.81
39 lay up. Scoring average = 4.23

2019

22 went for it. Scoring average = 3.86
43 lay up. Scoring average = 4.09

It should be noted that not many of those who went for the green made it on... nor were they really expecting to. The mindset was to rely on their short game to get up-and-down in 2-3 strokes.

Said Giesbrecht about the players’ decisions:

“Most think a golf shot is an ‘event’ because of the time available to hit it. It’s actually part of a pattern. Understanding patterns gives you an advantage over those who make emotional decisions based on singular events.”

Jason expanded on this in an email to VanIsleGolfNews.com:

The observation shared during The Masters was really a confirmation of what Lou Stagner was pointing out.

Most players, even those at the highest levels, would benefit from understanding the real range of possibilities for each shot. That range of possibilities is the pattern of their prior shots, a measure of their actual skill, and includes the good and the “not-so-goods.”

As golfers, we tend to attach more emotion to “events” than we do to “patterns” or routines. This is especially true of negative events. Less emotion is attached to routines and patterns, which are, by nature, boring. Patterns are just what we do when we’re not thinking about what we do.

Additionally, as humans, we tend to be more risk-averse than opportunity-seeking in general.

A quick review of your lifetime of insurance paid vs. insurance-related “events” is one insight into our desire to avoid negative events.

Lou, as he does almost daily, uses math to point out the opportunity being lost.

More than half the field on the 3rd hole of The Masters was “playing it safe” and laying up off the tee.

In this case, the objective data pointed to the fact that laying up [costs] players strokes. That is not to say that laying up is always a bad idea. But in this case, due to the patterns and range of outcomes of the player in the field, more than half the group was underestimating their wedge game skills and overestimating their short iron skills.

Golf, by its nature, is a very (VERY) difficult game and we tend to see more negative outcomes than we would like (again, at every level). The game makes us feel inconsistent. However, we do demonstrate patterns if we take care to observe.

What is necessary for golfers of every level to be the best version of themselves is to look at their games as objectively as possible. The best players in the world are typically experts in themselves as much as anything. They better know what they do in each situation, take advantage of opportunities, and avoid big mistakes. This takes objective data.

Therefore, we advocate for our golfers to keep track of what they do on the course. Depending on the level of [the] player, we think all golfers should keep a few key stats. This not only gives the opportunity to take advantage of the range of positive outcomes but also to know how to select the best targets. This objective information should also be used to direct precious practice time to the areas of greatest reward.

We have routines and patterns in our lives because it takes less energy, [makes] us more efficient, and allows us to have some level of sanity and peace. We recommend you learn about your patterns for your golf game for the same reason.

For more from Jason, you can follow him on Twitter at @jasongiesbrecht.